NCAA Prospects of 2008-09

In the coming days, I will be looking at the performances of Leafs prospects from last year and using NHL Equivalencies (NHLE) to project what they might score if they were in the NHL next season. If you are familiar with Behind the Net (home of Gabriel Desjardins advanced statistics and studies) and Lowetide, you'll probably know all about NHL Equivalencies. If not, then you should read this excellent study on translating players' performances to the NHL. Thanks to Desjardins, we are able to reasonably estimate what a minor-league/junior/college/Euro-league player would produce if he was brought into the NHL.

This post looks at the Leafs NCAA pool, including free agent signings Christian Hanson and Tyler Bozak. The table below includes the basic NCAA stats from 2008-09. Players ages are as of January 1, 2009 (as set by Desjardins in his study).

Now let's translate those numbers to the NHL level on an 82-game basis.

NHL Equivalencies:

1. Tyler Bozak 14-27-41
2. Viktor Stalberg 21-19-40
3. Chad Rau 16-17-33
4. Christian Hanson 15-14-29
5. Alex Berry 10-17-27
6. Tyler Ruegsegger 14-11-25
7. Pierce Norton 8-13-21
8. Matt Frattin 10-10-20
9. Jimmy Hayes 7-5-12
10. Ben Winnett 4-7-11

Bozak, Stalberg, Hanson, and Berry have finished school and will be vying for roster spots with the Leafs/Marlies this fall. Bozak's NHLE may be less accurate due to the smaller sample of games played this season. A knee injury limited him to just 19 games, but he is fully recovered and rarin' to go. Stalberg is a dark horse to make the Leafs, with the potential to score 20 goals in his rookie year (but I think he'll be with the Marlies barring an exceptionally strong showing in camp). Hanson played chiefly as a centreman in college, and won an impressive 61.1 % of his draws, but was moved to the wing after joining the Leafs last season. Chad Rau and Pierce Norton have also graduated but have not been signed to contracts by the organization.

I also have Power-Play Goals, Assists, and Points for each NCAA player (I had to compile power-play assists from boxscores for some players), included here with Shots statistics:

• Ruegsegger: 113 SOG, 3.2 S/GP, 13.3 S%; 12 PPG - 5 PPA - 17 PPP (65.4 % of total Pts)
• Stalberg: 165 SOG, 4.2 S/GP, 14.5 S%; 7 PPG - 8 PPA - 15 PPP (32.6 %)
• Rau: 144 SOG, 3.8 S/GP, 12.5 S%; 7 PPG - 7 PPA - 14 PPP (37.8 %)
• Hanson: 92 SOG, 2.5 S/GP, 17.4 S%; 6 PPG - 7 PPA - 13 PPP (41.9 %)
• Norton: 83 SOG, 2.5 S/GP, 9.6 S%; 5 PPG - 7 PPA - 12 PPP (57.1 %)
• Bozak: 58 SOG, 3.1 S/GP, 13.8 S%; 3 PPG - 5 PPA - 8 PPP (34.8 %)
• Frattin: 83 SOG, 2.0 S/GP, 15.7 S%; 5 PPG - 2 PPA - 7 PPP (28.0 %)
• Berry: 112 SOG, 3.0 S/GP, 9.8 S%; 0 PPG - 5 PPA - 5 PPP (16.7 %)
• Hayes: 75 SOG, 2.1 S/GP, 10.7 S%; 1 PPG - o PPA - 1 PPP (7.7 %)
• Winnett: 42 SOG, 1.3 S/GP, 9.5 S%; 0 PPG - 1 PPA - 1 PPP (9.1 %)

Ruegsegger racked up nearly 2/3 of his points on the power-play. If you don't include PP numbers, Ruegsegger actually scored less than freshman Hayes and sophomore Winnett, guys who saw very little PP time; Hayes is left with 12 pts, Winnett with 10, and Ruegsegger with just 9. Hopefully he improves on his even-strength production in his upcoming senior year.