Monday, March 1, 2010

Individual Scoring Chance Breakdowns through Games 6-61

Leafs Scoring Chances, broken down by:
1) Even Strength
2) Power-Play (5-on-4 and 4-on-3 only)
3) Short-Handed (again, two man advantages not included)

1. Even-Strength

ChF: Total Chances For at ES while the player was on the ice, ChA: Total Chances Against
Ch+/-: ChF subtracted by ChA, EVC %: Chances Percentage = ChF / (ChF + ChA) *100
EVCF/60: Chances For at even-strength per 60 minutes, EVCA/60: Chances Against per 60 min.
EVDIF/60: Chance Differential per 60 minutes

- Ponikarovsky has consistently been one of the top Leaf players in this regard throughout the season and currently leads the team in chance differential per 60 min. If he is traded before the deadline, the team that acquires him is getting a solid winger.
- Kessel continues his slide, in the last 15 games he has gone 49-58 at ES, much of that is due to having gone from playing with Stajan and Poni to being centred by rookie pro Tyler Bozak.
- Viktor Stalberg has only played about 1/4 of a season so far and hasn't been racking up the points but so far he looks impressive according to this data.
- Wayne Primeau's numbers are less-than-stellar, likely due to playing tough competition at 5-on-5 according to Behind-the-Net, as indicated by the CORSI Rel. QoC number (2nd highest on the team, excluding Dion Phaneuf who only played 5 of his 60 games as a Leaf). Meaning he plays against players who typically outshoot their opponents, relative to the rest of the team. Primeau also has the lowest ratio of offensive zone faceoffs to defensive zone faceoffs (that he was on the ice for) among Leaf forwards. All this tells us that Primeau is typically relied on as a shutdown guy and while he won't contribute much offensively, the Leafs allow slightly less scoring chances against with Primeau is taking a shift (13.77) than they do on average when he's on the bench (14.20).

2. Power-Play

From the trades with Calgary and Anaheim, the Leafs didn't lose much as far as the PP goes - Stajan was mediocre at best and his replacement, Tyler Bozak, has put up a superior performance so far, and Hagman, White, and Blake were underwhelming. Dion Phaneuf hasn't made his mark here yet, but hey, it's only five games.

3. Short-Handed

- The above table also includes the number of games played by each player during the period that I've been tracking scoring chances, unlike the previous two (sorry about that, I've been in a bit of hurry to get this post up after sitting on my ass for several weeks).
- Stajan saw a big increase in his power-play chances against before he was shipped out. In his last 7.84 minutes as a Leaf PKer, the opposition got 12 chances.
- Primeau has the worst numbers amongst regular PKers.
- Stempniak and Mitchell appear to be the best on the team, and hopefully Freddy Shoes keeps up the good work. Dion Phaneuf has looked good here in the little time he has spent in a Leaf jersey thus far.
- Among the players who have seen an improvement: Garnet Exelby. In the last 15 games, he has played 25.06 minutes with chances at 1 for and 16 against.

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