Wednesday, July 7, 2010

Behind-the-Net Stats for 6 UFA Top-Six Forwards (best options left?)

For reference, I've put together real quick some 5-on-5 statistics from Behind-the-Net.ca for Ilya Kovalchuk, Alexander Frolov, Paul Kariya, Pavol Demitra, Alexei Ponikarovsky, and Maxim Afinogenov (listed in no particular order) from each of the past three seasons. These are some of the best options left on the unrestricted free agency market for top-six forwards, which is admittedly sparse.

Included are Corsi REL QoC (quality of competition based on the Corsi metric), Corsi REL QoT (quality of teammates by Corsi), and QualCOMP (quality of competition by goal differential, and included for posterity). For those three statistics, I've displayed the ranking of each player on his team among forwards who played 30 games or more that season, instead of the direct figure for each stat. This gives better insight to how the player was used within context of the team. One caveat, however, is that due to limitations of the Behind-the-Net site (don't get me wrong, it's an absolutely terrific resource for non-mainstream NHL statistics), those numbers could be a little skewed because of trades during a given season.
Note that the number to the left of the slash is where the player ranked on the team, and the the number to the right is the number of forwards on the team. For example, in 2007-08, Kovalchuk ranked 1st on his team in QualCOMP, out of 13 forwards.

PDO is the team's on-ice shooting percentage plus team's save percentage while the player was on the ice. Player's who have very PDO numbers high above 1000 are considered "lucky", favoured by the percentages. Likewise, those with PDO numbers well below 1000 are "unlucky". In theory, the career number should move closer to 1000 over time.

Start OPct is simply the ratio of offensive zone faceoffs to defensive zone faceoffs expressed in percentage form. Player's with an OPct above 50 are on for more offensive zone draws than defensive zone faceoffs.

Ilya Kovalchuk
SeasonGP
5v5
Pts/60
Qual
COMP
Corsi
REL QoC
Corsi
REL QoT
PDO
Start
OPct
07-08
79
2.72
1/13
8/13
12/13
1015
49.1
08-09
79
2.61
4/12
9/12
6/12
1010
45.0
09-10
75
2.89
*
*
*
1035
50.7

* - in 2009-10, Kovalchuk would've ranked about 3/15, 9/15, and 1/15 (not including Bergfors) in QualCOMP, REL QoC, and REL QoT, respectively, if he'd finished the year with the Atlanta Thrashers.
For some reason there's a real discrepancy between his QualCOMP and his Corsi REL QoC. I think it's fair to say he faced average-to-good opposition while playing with the best linemates available.
Ilya Kovalchuk is definitely the most consistent elite 5-on-5 scorer of all free agents.

Alexander Frolov
SeasonGP
5v5
Pts/60
Qual
COMP
Corsi
REL QoC
Corsi
REL QoT
PDO
Start
OPct
07-08
71
2.76
12/15
7/15
2/15
1007
53.7
08-09
77
1.62
1/13
1/13
6/13
979
50.9
09-10
79
1.87
5/14
4/14
10/14
979
52.9

Frolov went from facing weak opponents with first-rate linemates in '08 (with Marc Crawford as coach) to being matched up against tougher competition with mediocre teammates (under Terry Murray) over the last two years. His ES production has suffered as a result.

Paul Kariya
SeasonGP
5v5
Pts/60
Qual
COMP
Corsi
REL QoC
Corsi
REL QoT
PDO
Start
OPct
07-08
82
2.18
8/13
12/13
2/13
993
53.2
08-09
11
2.54
*
*
*
1050
48.9
09-10
75
1.81
6/14
6/14
3/14
989
49.5

An older stop-gap option, best for the short-term, that is if you really care to sign him.
* - Kariya played just 11 games in the 2008-09 season, so no QoC and QoT number rankings available.

Pavol Demitra
SeasonGP
5v5
Pts/60
Qual
COMP
Corsi
REL QoC
Corsi
REL QoT
PDO
Start
OPct
07-08
68
2.34
7/14
9/14
9/14
1043
49.2
08-09
69
2.30
5/13
6/13
6/13
1018
54.3
09-10
27
1.21
*
*
*
1024
47.4

A similar type of option as Kariya.
* - Demitra only played 27 games last season.

Alexei Ponikarovsky
SeasonGP
5v5
Pts/60
Qual
COMP
Corsi
REL QoC
Corsi
REL QoT
PDO
Start
OPct
07-08
66
1.91
5/14
10/14
2/14
986
55.5
08-09
79
2.84
4/10*
7/10*
3/10*
996
53.7
09-10
75
2.27
*
*
*
995
54.7

Ponikarovsky had the most favourable Zone Starts out of all these players and consistently faced mediocre-weak opposition over the past three seasons. Put up good numbers doing it, though. His Pts/60 in '08-09 was one of the best rates in the NHL that year.
* - I happened to save Poni's numbers before he played a game with the Pittsburgh Penguins. If you subtract the two forwards acquired (Sjostrom and Lundmark) and add in Hagman, Stajan, Blake, Mayers, and Stempniak, you get a breakdown 11/16, 13/16, and 4/16 - weak competition with good teammates. This is basically about what he's worked with the past three seasons.
- In 2008-09, if you reduce minimum GP to 20, Poni went 5/13, 8/13, 3/13 (including Antropov: 6/14, 9/14, 4/14)

Maxim Afinogenov
SeasonGP
5v5
Pts/60
Qual
COMP
Corsi
REL QoC
Corsi
REL QoT
PDO
Start
OPct
07-08
56
1.74
13/16*
12/16*
5/16*
940
54.1
08-09
48
1.63
13/14
13/14
7/14
981
52.7
09-10
82
2.26
1/15
4/15
1/15
995
49.1

Faced tough competition last season but usually had the best linemates available (Kovalchuk and Antropov).
* - Among the 16 Buffalo Sabres forwards who played 30+ games in 2007-08 is Steve Bernier, who actually played the majority of his games with the San Jose Sharks before the Sabres acquired him through trade. If you exclude him, Afinogenov ranks 12/15, 11/15, and 5/15, respectively.

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